COVID-19 has demonstrated that a pandemic is a complex phenomenon fueled by a multitude of diverse, interconnected factors and revealed deeply rooted structural weaknesses and insufficiencies in our health, socioeconomic, environmental, and political systems. Hindsight - critical reviews of past infectious threats - helped us react better, but the current pandemic taught us that this is not enough. To better manage the ongoing pandemic and to be better prepared for other infectious threats in the future, a forward-looking, coordinated, and collaborative approach across all levels of planning and response is vital.
Futures thinking and foresight methodologies are key to better preparing for what lies ahead. While long used in other sectors, these approaches are novel to epidemic and pandemic preparedness. Using foresight, we can identify trends, key factors, and emerging issues. We can then negotiate uncertainties, as well as develop scenarios and strategic visions for a better prepared future.
A new WHO report, ‘Imagining the Future of Pandemics and Epidemics’, describes the Organization’s first Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative. The report explores what the future of infectious threats might look like in the next 3 to 5 years. Inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic, the report sets out possible scenarios that present visions of different directions current and future pandemics might take. Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but instead invite us to use our imaginations and expand the range of plausible futures. The scenarios are an opportunity to identify possible risks and solutions, discuss implications and propose actions. By discussing scenarios, we can work together and find ways to prevent and respond to current and future infectious threats.
As part of the Infectious Hazards Foresight Initiative, WHO convened a series of conversations with experts and collaborators. From these discussions of the future, three key principles for preparedness emerged: trust, solidarity and equity, and sustainable development.
To discover more about foresight, the scenarios, the key principles and practical recommendations for implementing them, download the report [LINK].